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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

However the current race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still